BoxOffice.com, a website which specializes in predicting upcoming movies' box office success by a variety of metrics, has released their long range forecast for Ender's Game this week. They are currently predicting a $30 million opening weekend and projecting total domestic gross (U.S.) of $80 million.
With an estimated total production budget of $110 million, and factoring in international ticket sales, which should be substantial as the promotional campaign has been well-received in Europe and any kind of controversy surrounding the movie doesn't play much of a role overseas, the movie would be a financial success with these numbers, though not exactly reach 'blockbuster status'.
According to BoxOffice.com the buzz for Ender's Game is generally positive with a 11:1 positive-to-negative ratio for website comments, and a 42:1 positive-to-negative ratio on Twitter (Data for September 10, 2013). Other metrics the site is using for its predictions are trailer views and ratings, a Facebook index, and the number of comments or mentions on social media and message boards.
In their introductory post for Ender's Game, they are listing as PROS for box office success the story's strong fan base, the "ensemble cast featuring veteran actors like Harrison Ford, Ben Kingsley, and Viola Davis," and they also conclude that the movie could "appeal somewhat to young audiences given the growing familiarity of Asa Butterfield (Hugo) and Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)."
On the negative side we hear once again about the negative publicity coming from the Orson Scott Card debate. They also warn that "neither [Harrison] Ford nor [Ben] Kingsley are consistent box office draws these days," and that in the Sci-Fi genre the movie "will very likely be overshadowed by Thor: The Dark World and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire." Additionally the writers are of the opinion that "the book series, being as old as it is, lacks much relevance to today's younger generation," a statement that we here at Ender News strongly contest. We believe the book's theme and messages are very relevant for today's youth, especially in the light of recent developments in world politics.
We will let you know if there is any material change to BoxOffice.com's predictions for Ender's Game closer to the movie's release.